Mamdani v Cuomo, it would be much tighter. I’m betting that Adams will drop out and take a job at HUD in DC. There is no way he will win reelection if he stays in it and Trump wants him to drop out. So it will likely be a 3-man race. I doubt that Sliwa will be much of a factor. But stranger things have happened so you never know.
Mamdani has a great ground campaign. It reminds me of Obama’s first presidential campaign in a lot of ways. Mamdani is raising the most money and has a lot of very energized enthusiastic volunteers. He won the primary in a landslide but most people didn’t vote. More will vote in the general election. I think he has won some people over who were previously skeptical about his experience level.
There is growing “anyone-but-Mamdani” sentiment and those people seem ready to hold their nose and vote for Cuomo. However, this is NYC where Trump is extremely hated. Trump has his supporters in some demographic groups but they are a minority in this city. The more people perceive Cuomo as the candidate that Trump wants and the more Trump does things to “help” Cuomo (like getting Adams to drop out), the more that association with Trump, real or perceived, will hurt Cuomo.
I’m cautiously optimistic about Mamdani’s chances of winning but it’s far from a sure thing. Bill deBlasio endorsed Mamdani yesterday. During his time in office, deBlasio achieved several rent freezes so that’s a good reminder to voters that doing so is possible, not some pie-in-the-sky idea. So far, the big names in
the Democratic Party establishment have not endorsed Mamdani. The party establishment seems very shaken by him. They’re all trying to decide what would be best for their careers — endorse him or don’t endorse him.
Personally, I think Mamdani is exactly what NYC needs right now. I hope he wins and shakes up the Democratic Party nationally.
